MBS, Monetary Policy, and Expert Market Communication
The Federal Reserve has two statutory mandates: maximum employment and price stability (2% inflation target). Every monetary policy decision is framed by the tension between these two goals. The challenge: monetary policy acts with long and variable lags. A rate hike today affects inflation 12–18 months from now. The Fed is always driving while looking in the rearview mirror. Quantitative Easing and Mortgage Markets QE is the Fed's purchase of long-term assets (Treasuries and MBS) to inject liquidity into financial markets and drive down long-term rates when the federal funds rate is at the effective lower bound. When the Fed buys MBS, it directly increases demand for MBS, which drives MBS prices up and mortgage rates down. QE is a direct intervention in the mortgage market. When the Fed reduces its balance sheet (quantitative tightening, QT), it removes demand from the MBS market, causing prices to fall and mortgage rates to rise. The Yield Curve The yield curve plots the yields of Treasury securities across different maturities. In normal conditions, longer-term bonds yield more than shorter-term bonds (upward sloping). An inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) has historically preceded recessions. Understanding the yield curve explains seemingly paradoxical market dynamics: Why did mortgage rates fall after the Fed raised rates? (Because the market interpreted the hike as the end of the tightening cycle, and long-term yields declined in anticipation of future rate cuts.)